Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 20.276095 21.365526 22.505563 23.791651 25.207202 26.723522 28.478349
2026-02-01 18.430305 19.917134 21.542620 23.466026 25.699077 28.234434 31.366944
2026-02-08 17.215935 18.909561 20.814840 23.143128 25.948912 29.272092 33.587298
2026-02-15 16.351072 18.188158 20.301854 22.952702 26.247124 30.292036 35.780125
2026-02-22 15.954700 17.961659 20.321165 23.356338 27.246540 32.203223 39.250530
2026-03-01 15.341574 17.425871 19.916145 23.181970 27.469254 33.095401 41.408351
2026-03-08 14.646300 16.747530 19.288762 22.670945 27.194317 33.270575 42.533949
2026-03-15 14.122651 16.252315 18.858288 22.376827 27.169760 33.761005 44.138259
2026-03-22 13.946638 16.177802 18.948265 22.757566 28.070550 35.605446 47.995210
2026-03-29 13.727002 16.034014 18.935810 22.990905 28.769023 37.200634 51.652875
2026-04-05 13.492748 15.858654 18.869232 23.138913 29.344322 38.646375 55.247789
2026-04-12 13.167601 15.551294 18.612037 23.003608 29.487647 39.422020 57.759658
2026-04-19 12.775098 15.150141 18.223553 22.677933 29.346213 39.763243 59.590995
2026-04-26 12.412408 14.777158 17.859713 22.370238 29.212568 40.105144 61.480007
2026-05-03 12.076869 14.428922 17.515650 22.072487 29.071296 40.414286 63.341150
2026-05-10 11.804607 14.156369 17.264678 21.896684 29.105926 41.019071 65.901545
2026-05-17 11.735290 14.153427 17.384299 22.269224 30.031222 43.260071 72.419407
2026-05-24 11.494175 13.909016 17.156198 22.108333 30.075971 43.915086 75.478500
2026-05-31 11.164858 13.535431 16.734387 21.636422 29.578747 43.522566 75.956970
2026-06-07 10.914770 13.264709 16.450804 21.364558 29.401083 43.717203 77.935622
2026-06-14 10.872012 13.277929 16.571056 21.716454 30.295696 46.049462 85.971283
2026-06-21 10.789386 13.232603 16.604182 21.931960 30.967017 48.015295 93.642429
2026-06-28 10.687123 13.156439 16.588990 22.068594 31.505779 49.768792 101.295627